Debunking Freaknomomics Blog’s Alaskan Decriminalization Reefer Madness

An inquiring Stasher read the NY Times Freakonomics Blog’s quorum on marijuana legalization (which I dissected here), particularly the first paragraph of Mike Braun, a recently-retired chief of operations for the DEA, and asks:

Hi, I just read Mike Brauns text on http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/05/22/pot-quorum/ .

The numbers and so on, on the decriminalization in alaska, are they true? And what is the argument you have against their decriminalization “failure”?

Well, first let’s share former agent Braun’s Reefer Madness with the rest of the class:

In 1975, the Alaska Supreme Court ruled that an adult’s possession of marijuana for personal consumption in the home was legal. Although the ruling applied only to persons 19 and over, teen consumption of the drug skyrocketed. A 1988 University of Alaska study found that the state’s 12- to 17-year-olds used marijuana at more than twice the national average for their age group. School equivalency test scores plummeted, as work place accidents, insurance rates and drugged-driving accidents went through the roof. Alaska’s residents voted to recriminalize possession of marijuana in 1990, demonstrating their belief that legalization and increased use was too high a price to pay.

The first sentence is true enough.  Alaska’s Constitution has a personal privacy clause much more explicit than anything found in the US Constitution (unfortunately) and the Supreme Court ruled (Ravin v. Alaska) that personal possession of up to four ounces and 25 plants in the home was protected.

The second sentence leaves a lot to be desired, like a reference to any study or data to back up the “skyrocketed” claim.  However, if Alaskan teen marijuana use went up from 1975-1979, I wouldn’t be surprised, since teen use of marijuana “skyrocketed” nationwide from 27.1% to 36.5% of high school seniors using marijuana monthly.  That’s an increase of over a third (34.6%), so Alaskan teen use would have to have increased by more than that for Alaskan decriminalization to even be considered as likely a cause as the overall nationwide increase in use.

The third sentence cites a University of Alaska study, but is using some crooked numbers in its reference.  As Cannabis Culture debunked:

In reality, a survey conducted in 1982 by the University of Alaska showed that a 4% of Alaskan students used marijuana every day, compared to 6.3% of all American high school seniors.

Bennett based his “more than twice” figure on a 1988 University of Alaska study whose author specifically stated that “because there are so many variables” his study should not be used to argue for or against legalization. … Northern aboriginal communities have always had higher rates of alcohol and drug abuse than the national average and during the years of Alaskan decriminalization alcohol consumption went down. The 1988 usage numbers are self-reported, meaning that after 13 years of decriminalization more Alaskan teenagers felt comfortable discussing their cannabis use than teenagers in more prohibitive states. No surprise there.

The fourth sentence claims that test scores fell, workplace accidents, insurance rates, and drugged driving increased. Again, no citations for these claims and my quick Googling found no way to determine the validity of these claims.

Based on those claims, Braun says that Alaskans voted to recriminalize marijuana in 1990.  That is true: in 1990, 53% – 47% of Alaskans passed an initiative, pushed heavily and promoted in-state by the federal drug czar Bill Bennett, that criminalized possession of marijuana in the home.  Keep in mind that in 1990, nationwide support for legalizing marijuana was at its lowest point ever, only 16%.  However, in 2003, a state appeals court invalidated much of the 1990 measure as unconstitutional and once again, possession of up to four ounces in the home was legal.  By 2006, the state legislature passed new recrim laws, but another judge ruled that only the portions that recriminalized possession of greater than an ounce passed constitutional muster.

So what you have in Alaska’s history of legal personal home marijuana is:

• 1975-1990: Four ounces legal
• 1990-2003: Zero ounces legal
• 2003-2006: Four ounces legal
• 2006-Now: One ounce legal

If I’m following Braun’s pretzel logic here, he’s saying that after 1975, legal marijuana’s impact on teen use, school tests, workplace accidents, insurance rates, and drugged driving led Alaskans to recriminalize in 1990.  By his reasoning, then, those impacts would have gone the opposite direction from 1990-2003 and since 2003 we should see those impacts heading the wrong way again.

Teen use: In 1995, when marijuana was still criminalized (earliest year I can find), 48.4% of Alaskan students had tried marijuana at least once.  In 2003 when four ounces was again legal, usage dropped to 47.5%.  By 2006 when one ounce was legal, usage dropped to 44.7% (page 42).  For monthly use, the 1995 figure is 28.7%, which drops to 23.9% in 2003 and 20.5% in 2006 (page 44).

School tests: In 1990, 8th graders placed in the top quartile on the Iowa Test of Basic Skills at 31.5% on reading, 30.3% on math, and 29.2% on language (page 33 – nationally, each quartile breaks down to 25% of the population, so any number above 25% is beating national average).  By 2003, Alaska switched to the Terra/Nova test, and the 9th graders in the top quartile for reading, math, and language were 29.2%, 31.5%, and 26.6% (pages 13-14).

But it’s wrong to compare data from two different tests, even if Alaskan kids have outperformed the national average in both of them.  Besides, 8th & 9th graders may still be too young to be affected by their parents legal use of marijuana in the home.  So how about high schoolers in Alaska – does legal marijuana make them drop out or perform worse in school?

Alaskan Dropout Rates 1990-2007

Here’s a look at the dropout rates from 1990-2003, the thirteen years where marijuana was recriminalized in Alaska.  While dropout rates declined in the early part of marijuana recriminalization, they jump when medical marijuana is introduced and jump when marijuana is decriminalized again.  However, note how the rates drop back down in the three years following, until the 2007 dropout rate is nearly the same as the 1990 dropout rate.

Alaskan 10th Grade Standardized Test Scores

Here’s a look at a standardized test used in Alaska called HSQGE from 2000-2008.  Remember that Braun opined that Alaskans recriminalized in 1990 because “school equivalency test scores plummeted” when adults could legally possess marijuana at home.  Well, it’s been five years now and the scores haven’t “plummeted”, in fact reading and writing scores have increased.  If you’re thinking that 10th graders may be too young, we can look at SAT scores, which have remained steady at about 518 Verbal, 516 Math from 2000-2006.

As for overall marijuana use, the NSDUH for 2006 shows that 8.26% of Alaskans between ages 12-17 used marijuana last month, compared to the national average of 6.74%.  However, in 1999, when personal use was still recriminalized, the Alaskan monthly 12-17 rate was 8.65% and the national rate was 7.24%.  It seems like teen marijuana use in Alaska actually declined since 1999, as noted in an MPP report co-authored by Dr. Mitch Earleywine on teen use in medical marijuana states:

[S]ince Alaska passed its medical marijuana law, high school students’ lifetime usage of marijuana has slightly declined — by 8% — and their  current marijuana use declined more significantly — by 29%. Current marijuana use decreased among all grade levels. … The rate at which Alaska high schoolers currently use marijuana dropped by a larger margin than national numbers did between 1995 and 2007. The national YRBS found a 22% decrease in high schoolers’ past 30-day marijuana use, while Alaska’s YRBS show a 29% drop. During the same time frame, Alaska teens’ lifetime marijuana use declined by about the same percentage as their counterparts nationwide: 10% fewer reported trying marijuana throughout the U.S., while 8% fewer Alaskans reported having ever tried marijuana.

Alaskan Traffic Fatalities 1982-2006

Finally, I can’t get you any Alaskan OSHA workplace safety statistics without a username and password, but I did find traffic fatality data from 1982-2006.  There seems to be a slight rise in traffic fatalities following re-legalized marijuana in 1990, and that follows a steep decline in deaths while four ounces of marijuana was still legal.  Fatalities reached their lowest point in 1998 (70) while marijuana is criminalized, but have also reached down into the 70s during re-legalized marijuana in 2005-2006.

It looks to me that former DEA Chief Mike Braun has been getting his statistics from the Department of Right Outta His Ass.  I’m not claiming any causality between Alaskan marijuana decriminalization and these statistics; there are far more variables than just marijuana involved (did Alaska’s rise and fall in oil revenues cause more kids to drop out, for example).  I’m just showing you that Mike Braun’s claim that the people of Alaska recriminalized because they saw these terrible statistics is a bunch of reefer madness, and the statistics don’t even show what he claims the people of Alaska saw.