Marijuana Use and High School Dropout: The Influence of Unobservables
In this study we reconsider the relationship between heavy and persistent marijuana use and high school dropout status using a unique prospective panel study of over 4500 7th grade students from South Dakota who are followed up through high school.…We find a positive association between marijuana use and dropping out (OR=5.68), over half of which can be explained by prior differences in observational characteristics and behaviors. The remaining association (OR=2.31) is made statistically insignificant when measures of cigarette smoking are included in the analysis. Because no physiological justification can be provided for why cigarette smoking would reduce the cognitive effects of marijuana on schooling, we interpret this as evidence that the association is due to other factors. We then use the rich data to explore which constructs are driving this result, determining that it is time-varying parental and peer influences.
In other words, heavy persistent marijuana use is not a reliable indicator of whether a student will eventually drop out of school, but instead that parents and peers have more impact on whether a kid stays in school.
Bet you won’t see this study plastered all over the Washington Post, USA Today, New York Times, CNN, FOX, etc… But if it showed the opposite – that pot smoking led to drop-outs – it would’ve been front-page news.
