Will US majority support marijuana legalization by 2012?
Monday, April 6th, 2009 at 3:10 pm | By: Radical Russ
Trend toward legalization of marijuana in the US public opinion polls 1969-2009
I’ve been analyzing polls from the past forty years to find the trend in support of marijuana legalization. Barring any major shift in public attitude, it looks as though we might have majority support by the 2012 presidential election.
The trendline is simply the linear result of plugging all those numbers into Excel. We see a drop in support during the Carter and Reagan Administrations, but then a rapid increase in support in the first Bush and Clinton Administrations. Average it all out and we go from about 15% support forty years ago to about 40% support today. Looking to the next election, support would be at about 42%. This puts majority support at around 2028… just in time for Chelsea Clinton to run! (Kidding!)
However, if you throw a triple-polynomial trendline at the numbers, to account for the rise-fall-rise shape of the data points, the rapid increase builds momentum and majority support is reached by the next election in 2012.
No matter how you slice it, with my best-case prediction of majority support by 2012; worst-case by 2028, that means over the next five presidential elections, the marijuana legalization question is going to be asked more frequently, and those who oppose it will gain less support.
Topics: Legalize Marijuana
It is hard not to become complacent..
next spring I am going to college. And while I am there, I am sure it is going to feel like it is already legalized..
It is a measurement of risk vs. reward, I enjoy smoking pot so the reward is “high”, the risks of me getting caught are low.
[...] might examine these results and conclude that marijuana law reform is an issue that is becoming increasingly popular with America’s voters. Of course if you’re Fox News, you interpret these results another way. Obama’s Effort [...]
screw that. We need to legalize now! We just need to keep our heads straight, tell the facts, and eventually people will understand the truth. The biggest problem is the majority still isn’t educated yet. This is difficult to do because it requires people to accept that they’ve been duped. People will argue lame and incorrect arguments for a long time just to avoid being proved wrong. Maybe would could turn this into outrage and anger against to government for lying to its own people.
It is a sad political move for Obama to dismiss this issue. I am very upset with him on this. It is especially ironic, as just today, Obama said he would not make decisions based on politics, but rather on what is good for the country. It is the people around him, Emmanuel and Biden especially. I think our best hope for legalization is 2016 if we elect someone who makes it a platform of their election…
Honestly if the legalization doesent happen by 2012 and i get another marijuana conviction I’m gonna be dead. I’m so tired of this injustice I’d rather be dead then have to deal with this anymore. Prohibition has destroyed my life and is destroying my life. You people don’t understand honestly what’s happening to half of us who are convicted, we are harassed everyday by police officer’s they circle our neighbor hood block’s 24/7 they scare away our friends and family who are avid smoker’s they give us fine’s up to 20 thousand dollar’s and shove us back in prison when we can’t pay them..I’ve been back and forth into cooping centers for depression and suicide attempts and I have to say. prohibition is destroying good peoples live’s from an early age….so much for me going to culinary school in europe”My lifes dream” now I’m forced to stay in the states until i can get a passport 7 years from now…as long as i don’t get in anymore trouble.
None of you people get the jist of how horrible this thing is. you talk about the economy and all that crap more then you talk about morals and what the government is doing to it’s own people. I support you 100% though just please don’t forget about the DARE generation and what the police are doing to us.
I don’t think we will have to wait that long if we all get off our butts and start becoming active, we have to show people that we are hard working Americans. We need to show them we are of all ages and races, well over 21. We have to show them we are not criminals, thought our government wants to make us criminals. We have to make them realize marijuana isn’t the typical, movie Drug user, we have kids and families we are home owners and if anything we obey the laws even more so then non users. We don’t want anything to get us into trouble cuz we know that it will lead to a marijuana arrest.
One large gathering in DC would make a huge impact. If pull off a Million men march, but get even half the daily smokers out, we could blow away any protest that has taken place. We will be heard, if we are there demanding it, media will have to cover it and then and only then can we make America see what is wrong with Prohibition and who its really effecting!
Education is the key; these older folks really believe the Reefer Madness lies still to this day. They still believe there is no medical Value, even my state legislators have written to me saying the same thing. Science has proven it, yet due to lack of true News stories and government not telling the truth and just ignoring it, they don’t here from the sources they will trust. Other then all of them getting cancer and a doctor prescribing it, they will not believe it. I wrote back and gave my senators all the material and the studies and have not heard back in a month, but I know they have the truth now and they can’t say that stupid line to me anymore! Media is not our friends; they will not put out marijuana stories without having a strong opponent to legalizing speaking last and closing the story. They fear they will lose viewers and it will send a wrong message to minors.
But that’s the problem, we keep lying to teens about marijuana and they will use it. They see it’s not what they have been told it is and then think it’s really OK, well it is but not at their age! We have to tell the truth about Marijuana so kids know what it is and we can explain just like alcohol that it’s not good when you’re young, but no we keep this game up and more kids smoke every year. They can get marijuana easier then Beer or smokes/chew, so why wouldn’t they?
Time is on our side yes, but I don’t want to wait another 35 years for anything to change. Let’s make it happen guys, sitting here preaching to the choir isn’t going to cut it. We have to act and act now!
[...] might examine these results and conclude that marijuana law reform is an issue that is becoming increasingly popular with America’s voters. Of course if you’re Fox News, you interpret these results another way. Obama’s Effort [...]
I doubt we ever see another drop in support for legalization like we saw in the Reagan years. Drug use in general peaked in this country around 1980. It was time for the party that began in the Sixties to be over. We were naive about drugs in general and a lot of people were hurt by the hard stuff, and probably quite a few wasted a lot of time with pot and were not so excited about it. Drug use dropped and support for legalization of marijuana dropped precipitously.
Since the early Nineties support for legalizing marijuana has grown pretty steadily. It’s not quite the sharp rise we saw in the Sixties and Seventies, but it’s a good steady climb in support, and it’s happening in an environment when we are no longer so naive about drugs or about how effective the government can be in making us “drug free.” We are better informed on average and have more realistic notions.
I think we’re going to see support for legalization of marijuana climbing a fairly steady rate at least until the oldest Baby Boomers start dying off from old age and most of the people living now who were born before them are gone. The oldest Baby Boomers born in the Forties don’t support marijuana legalization that much, but a much higher percentage of them support it than the percentage of people for it who were born before them. Part of what we are seeing in this upward trend of support is that the old folks who are most afraid of marijuana on average are dying off. We still have tens of millions of voters born before the Baby Boom, and people that age tend to be the most powerful people in our federal legislative bodies too. As these people die off we’re going to lose a lot of our strongest opponents, in the general population and in our lawmaking bodies. Our “elders” are going to be people more likely to support legalization and we’re going to see more and more of them coming out for it. That should actually increase support for legalization.
When I look at your chart, I’m looking at the angle of ascent of support since the early Nineties and thinking that we will likely see roughly that same steep angle well into the Twenties. I don’t think we’ll have majority support by 2012, but we should get there not too many years after that.
If there is a change in the trend we’ve seen since the early Nineties, we’ll start seeing the percentage supporting legalization start climbing even faster. The economy is in shambles. The government is buried under debt and that will only get worse. Mexican cartels are becoming more and more of a problem and it is becoming common knowledge that they make the lion’s share of their money from marijuana sales. Every year our most powerful leaders are more and more likely to be people who have smoked marijuana themselves. Adults born from sometime in the early to mid Fifties on are more likely than not to have smoked marijuana, according to government statistics. These people are more likely to support legalization than anyone born before them, and we’re going to hear more and more in government and other prominent people in society coming out in support of legalization in the coming years. That’s going to bring more people to our side. We might go from a one percentage point or so gain per year to seeing several points a year added to the percentage who support marijuana legalization.
how fast it happens all depends on peoples attitudes of doing the right thing. Becoming an activist (or becoming active (not the same but both needed)) is the only way as our government has already proven its ineptitude in following the law. Its up to us now to set this issue and our country itself right as our “forefathers” have lied cheated stole and even murdered and imprisoned in the name of greed and power all at the expense of our people’ our constitutional rights and of our country’s reputation around the world. the time is now not 20 years from now as in the next 20 years we will have much BIGGER issues to deal with of many magnitudes. Its way past time to get “smart”.
That’s 20 years.
It may even be sooner, I hope. We have quite a few extras going for us now that we never did. Lots more media coverage,internet,and the war in Mexico which is getting it’s deserved coverage. Not to mention a president who keeps asking us what we want:) Personally I spend all my time writing to the media requesting more marijuana news. We need these reporters to step up and push this issue.
Wow. That chart is pretty fancy and complicated. I thought all us “Pot Heads” were supposed to be lazy and dumb and yet here is evidence to the contrary. It is time for an awakening and to set old prejudices and stereo types aside.
I wonder how many people would stop going to see their doctor if they knew that they smoked marijuana in their leisure time? Would the doctors medical advice be any less sound? Of course not but due to antiquated beliefs built on out right lies and propaganda many of us must hide our taboo. Let’s all come out of the big green (and probably hot-boxed) closet. That is the only way to gain support. To show the world that those that they depend on for their food, health and safety are also the ones who use marijuana. We are working professionals, we support our communities and yes, we vote.
by 2012 a new sun will dawn, for good.